Rivian stock price forecast as short interest near 14%

Rivian stock price has rebounded in the past few days, moving from a low of $11.57 in August to the current $14.45. It is hovering near its highest level since May 29 this year. So, is the RIVN stock a good buy as short interest rises?

Rivian business is facing major headwinds

Rivian and other top American electric vehicle companies are facing major headwinds during the Trump administration. They are having to pay more for their raw materials, like steel and aluminium, since they are now subject to a huge tariff. 

Trump has removed the $7,500 incentive for the EV tax credit, a move that will result in slow revenue growth. At the same time, Trump has ended the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE), which eliminated penalties that automakers pay for not meeting standards. 

Rivian has estimated that losing these credit will cost it over $100 million in high-margin revenue. This is a big blow for a company that is facing major headwinds.

The ongoing trade war means that Rivian may find it difficult to export its vehicles in other markets where Chinese brands like Byd and XPeng are gaining market share.

The most recent results showed that Rivian’s automotive revenue dropped to $927 million in the second quarter from $1.07 billion in the same period last year.

Rivian’s software and services segment made $376 million, a big increase from the $84 million it made in Q2’25. This growth occurred as the company generated approximately $182 million in revenue from its joint venture with Volkswagen.

Rivian continued to generate substantial losses in the second quarter as it second-quarter metrics improved to $1.1 billion, down from  $1.45 billion

Rivian ended the last quarter with $7.5 billion in cash and short-term investments. It also has access to more money, helped by its partnership with Volkswagen, which is aiming to learn more from Rivian about its software business.

Read more: Rivian has a winning EV strategy in 2025: here’s what it is

Major challenges remain 

The main catalyst for the Rivian stock price is the upcoming Rivian R2 vehicle that starts at $45,000. At this point, Rivian hopes that the vehicle will be successful over time.

Wall Street analysts expect that Rivian’s revenue will be $1.5 billion in the current quarter, a 72% increase from the same period last year. They also see the company’s annual revenue will be $5.28 billion, up slightly from the $4.97 billion it made in the same period last year.

The upcoming R2 sales are expected to boost its 2026 performance, with the estimated sales being $6.97 billion. It will then keep narrowing its loss per share from, moving from $4.79 in 2024 to $3.2 and 3.01 next year.

It is likely that Rivian’s revenue will be lower than estimates because of Trump’s policies. This explains why the short interest has jumped to 13%.

Tesla stock price analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the RIVN stock price has rebounded in the past few days, moving from $11.56 in August to $15 today. It has now moved slightly above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

The stock has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which has a long period before it moves to its confluence level.

Therefore, the stock will likely remain in this range for a while and then have a bearish breakdown in the coming weeks.

If this happens, the key support and resistance levels to watch will be at $12 and $16. The outlook will likely be bearish as the company is facing major headwinds.

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